Main | Is a recession bad for SaaS? »

December 04, 2008

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Darren

All of these are solid points.

I learned something new with the 3 year rule!

And I agree with your point about having money in your pocket today rather than morsel each month. It's all about the time-value of money. You're exactly right. You'd be better off if I gave you $1000 bucks today. Rather than paying you back $500 each year for 2 years.

Another thing most people don't understand is that the SaaS model is not pay-as-you-go in the purest sense. Yes you pay monthly but you contractually agree to be a customer over a period of time. So there's another point of hesitation for the CIO.

Justin Benson

Thanks Darren!. It's probably another post but I think there is a lack of understanding around the 3 year rule. The outcome is that places a "ceiling" sometimes for SaaS players getting to the biggest table that may not be understood enough.

chris

I believe your 3-year rule defines the floor of SaaS pricing, rather than the norm. I good salesperson should be able to get the procuring CFO to consider a payback of 4 years or perhaps longer. Also, he should be able to illustrate the other costs of on-premise software - server, database, networking and IT staff. There is also the procuring company's cost of capital to consider. So the pricing probably ranges from your 3 year unloaded cost rule to a 4.5 year loaded cost payback.

Todd Gardner

Darren,

I think you did an OK job describing the major drawback of the SaaS model for the ISV, and that is cash flow during its growth years. It's not just the time value of money; it means more and more expensive VC dollars to grow the business.

That said, the SaaS model as "recession-proof" has two components: new sales, and internal revenue.

I believe, contrary to you, that SaaS will fair better in a recession. No one is looking at next year or the year after and firms are actually focused on their one balance sheet. SaaS gives them a solution faster and with a smaller cash outlay.

On the revenue and cash flow front, there is no-contest between a SaaS company and a traditional ISV when new sales slow. Hopefully the traditional ISV took all thier up-front payments and put them in the bank becasue they will need them as their revenue and ongoing cash-flow plummets over the next 4 quarters.

Finally, the simple answer to pricing SaaS like perpetual is that it simply won't work. It's an ongoing service performed every day for the customer. No one pays for that up front: forever.

Would you pay the cable company $20,000 for a life-time supply of cable? Or worse yet, $15,000 for the right to watch cable and 1,000 per year for new programs (maintaniance fees). How about paying the lawn service $45,000 for mowing your yard forever.

You might consider paying a year in advance like many SaaS users, but that is about as far as anyone will go.

BTW, like the post. The debate should be had. SaaS is not a panacea for anyone.

Justin Benson

Todd,

Thanks for the feedback and the examples.

Let's take your example on the lawn mowing. You have a new guy in the neighborhood whose trying to build up his business by getting more equipment NOW which allows him to do all his jobs faster with less labor costs.

So, they give you two offers. First one is to charge you $100 per month and they require a one year contract. The second offer is they offer you $3000 up front and just $60 a year in maintenance. IF you have the money and know you'll be in the house 5 years (hopefully a business will assume it is) you're going to think hard about the cash up front option. Let's say in addition you're a sales person who makes lumpy income (commission based) Now you really don't want to have high monthly recurring fees because your salary is lumpy. If you have that money now put it down and keep your recurring costs low.

Or maybe you trial them for 12 months before pulling the trigger. ;-)

Don't forget, unlike even 5 years ago, the cost of computing power and delivery etc is going down dramatically. A licensed fee model of up front + 20% maintenance would be fine for many SaaS providers - especially if they end up with a blended revenue stream by offering both models.

Thanks a lot Todd for your input.

Justin

Justin Benson

Chris,

Good comments. The 3 year rule though is partly driven by CapEx vs OpEx considerations which are well defined in a CFO's mind.

Justin

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